Tens of thousands leave the Gulf for the UK, for now
Tens of thousands of residents have left the Gulf amid escalating tensions, with many British and international families temporarily returning to the UK while the situation unfolds. Despite the scale of departures, most moves are precautionary rather than permanent, shaped by security concerns, schooling needs and tax timing.
Dubai’s long term appeal remains intact, but the disruption has created a window for the UK to position itself as a stable, flexible base for globally mobile wealth, even if only for now. In addition to this displacement, in the 12 months leading up to March 2025, according to Home Office records, over 6,600 US citizens applied for UK residency or citizenship, the highest number since 2004.
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Over 6,600 US citizens applied for UK residency or citizenship in the year leading up to March 2025, the highest number since 2004
The exodus, but not an exit
At the height of the Iran war, around 30,000 British residents left the UAE, according to The Times and other media outlets, with Dubai seeing the biggest impact. Many of those departures have been temporary rather than permanent though. Immigration lawyers report that most UHNW families are adopting a ‘wait-and-see’ approach, often moving for short-term reasons such as children’s schooling or general security concerns, while hoping to return once stability improves.
Dubai moves fast to steady confidence
Dubai authorities have responded quickly. In late March 2026 the Dubai Executive Council, chaired by His Highness Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, approved a AED 1 billion support package. Among the measures is a simplification of residency permit processes, designed to make it easier for companies to attract and retain skilled talent.
Travel disruption creates ‘inadvertent migrants’
Even airline crew members have faced unexpected immigration challenges amid the chaos. The 2026 Iran war turned many into ‘inadvertent migrants’ when widespread airspace closures forced hundreds of flight diversions and cancellations. According to aviation data, Cirium, airline analytics company, at least 145 flights diverted to alternative airports. Ioannis Sidiropoulos, Legal Analysis Executive at Chrysses Demetriades & Co, explains, “If crew are treated as passengers, airlines face carrier liability penalties for visa and documentation failures.”
A wait and see approach takes hold
Julia Onslow-Cole, Partner and Head of Government Advisory Services at Fragomen said. “Fragomen has been supporting many companies and UHNWI in the Middle East region and it is notable how few individuals wish to leave permanently.”
“Many UHNW clients are moving to the UK or Europe so that their children can attend school for the last term in the academic year, as many schools in the region are operating remotely. The Dubai Government is incredibly agile in the way in which it curates policies at speed to support businesses and individuals. It has already announced a huge package of investments which will bolster business resilience, as well as several measures to help individuals with their immigration status.”
School calendars and tax clocks
Stephen Hall, partner, Doyle Clayton and a dual qualified lawyer in the UK and Ireland said. “We are seeing a significant number of HNW families based in UAE returning to London on a wait and see basis, driven primarily by security concerns rather than a wholesale change of tax strategy. For non-British family members, we are providing a lot of advice around the scope of the visitor rules and how they can take advantage of the remote working guidelines. We have been explaining that the UK does not have a long-term digital nomad visa found in Spain and Portugal, but the visitor route is still providing immediate breathing space in the short term.”
“Many intend to reassess later in the year hoping that Middle East tensions stabilise before their days spent in the new tax year becomes an issue for tax and/or international remote working rules. The clock is ticking and it feels like families also have one eye on the UK’s world class private education Autumn school start dates. There are plenty of long term immigration solutions in the UK but the lifestyle in Dubai cannot be fully replicated in the UK, although the UK private education sector is a big pull, it is extremely difficult to bring domestic staff to the UK from UAE, it usually means leaving valued staff members behind and re-hiring, this is especially problematic for a well-loved family nanny.”
The US pipeline into Britain remains strong
“At the same time, US individuals continue to relocate to the UK in growing numbers. On the immigration side, we are seeing strong demand for Global Talent visas and Innovator Founder routes, which offer speed and align well with entrepreneurial and investment led profiles especially for tech entrepreneurs with a business idea different to anything currently available in the UK market. The younger US talent from Ivy League schools are using the High Potential Individual visa to get a foot hold into the UK. We see their HNW parents/grandparents are often following them as a family unit.”
The investor visa gap is still glaring
“The absence of a simple visa category for HNW families based on investment alone is still a big miss for the UK. For the retired HNW individual who is winding down their portfolios and career they don’t want the admin and commercial worry of applying for Innovator or Global Talent visas. The Home Office has made some noises that they are considering a new version on the Investor Visa route that closed in 2022, but politically this is yet to be agreed.”
A temporary return, not a permanent shift
Chris Harber, Partner, Head of Immigration, Boyes Turner said. “We have seen a very recent influx of enquiries from British citizens who are living in the Gulf region and are wanting to return home having married a foreign national whilst based overseas. At the moment the general view is that the tensions are a blip rather than a structural shift in the regional security outlook, as such most of the enquiries that we have received are from families who are looking to return to the UK temporarily and then go back to the Gulf once the tensions have eased. Interestingly, all of the enquiries that we have received from British citizens since the start of the conflict all have families, which might suggest that those who are single are more willing to risk staying.”
Short sighted to give up the life you have built
“My view is that it would be short sighted to give up the life you have built in your given country because of the conflict. It is important to separate out the short term need to find somewhere safe from the long term structural reasons why the Gulf countries are attractive to expats, the long term benefits will still very much be there in years to come, and it’s important to remember that Iran is not America’s primary long term adversary, my opinion is that, in Trump’s mind, this is an issue that needs to be dealt with swiftly before moving onto the main issue of China.”
Tax and immigration are now inseparable
Harber said. “As a result of the above, I think that most families will see paying additional tax on return to the UK as a necessary part of the short term solution. I don’t think that we will see wholesale relocation of assets from the Gulf to the UK, although if tensions with China rise over the coming years, I would expect to see significant wealth flows from Hong Kong in particular to the UK.”
The UK offers flexibility, but not simplicity
“On the US side: Since the closure of the investor route, options are a lot more limited for HNW and UHNW families wanting to move to the UK. The Global Talent route is very popular, although an increasingly popular gateway in the UK for younger US citizens is the High Potential Individual (HPI) visa. If you have a degree from a top global university and you graduated within the last 5 years, you can apply for a 2 year visa that will allow you to live and work in the UK. The list of eligible universities contains 33 US universities, so recent graduates of these universities have great mobility options if they are looking to make a career in the UK.”
Tax and immigration decisions become intertwined
Tax and immigration segway
Hazar El-Chamaa, partner in the Penningtons Manches Cooper’s immigration team works with many British UNHWs based in Dubai. She also works closely with James d’Aquino, partner in the private client team at Penningtons to consider tax, trust and succession planning for these individuals. “From an immigration perspective, clients’ movements feel more like caution than commitment to relocating, shaped by a mix of tax-timing and broader geopolitical uncertainty. What we’re seeing is a holding pattern rather than a rush for the exits. Some families who are long established residents of the UAE are remaining there, working remotely whilst their children continue studying online. However, others who are more recent arrivals in the region are spending time outside in any number of other jurisdictions or have returned to the UK but with non British partners entering as visitors instead of applying for spouse visas.”
“The current picture looks more measured than reactive. The April day count reset for UK residence purposes has made this kind of soft landing easier, but May is shaping up as the real decision point whether to formalise a move to the UK, head back to Dubai, or look to alternatives such as Portugal, Italy or Monaco. Throughout this process, we are working closely with Private Client and tax colleagues, such as James d’Aquino, to ensure immigration status, residence and tax exposure remain properly aligned.”
Britain still appeals to globally mobile wealth
Jennifer Stevens, Managing Partner, Laura Devine Attorneys, New York said. “The UK remains an attractive destination for high net worth individuals, in particular, as you have heard, the Global Talent route continues to gain momentum, appealing to internationally recognised individuals across research, technology, and the creative industries. The UK government is actively expanding this route with the aim of encouraging greater uptake, and notably, it is not expected to be caught by the proposed increase to the residence period required for settlement.”
Long standing plans to return home accelerate
“Alongside this, there has been a noticeable rise in British nationals returning to the UK with non British family members. While overall family visa issuances have declined month on month, family visas granted to US citizens increased by approximately 10% last year. The motivations behind these moves are varied: for some, political considerations are front of mind, with the UK perceived as offering greater stability at present; for others, long standing plans to return home have simply been accelerated. In most cases, however, these relocations are intended to be firmly long term.”
Inbound to the USA
“From a US immigration perspective, high net worth individuals most commonly pursue the E 2 treaty investor visa, which enables eligible nationals to invest in and actively operate US businesses with a high degree of flexibility. Depending on individual circumstances, alternative pathways may include the L 1 visa for founders, executives, or managers transferring to a US affiliate, or the O 1 visa for individuals able to evidence extraordinary ability within their field.”
Mobility becomes the new wealth strategy
Rose Carey, Partner, Lewis Silkin said. “Many HNW families are temporarily relocating to the UK from the Middle East. Businesses are also temporarily relocating their staff to other locations and offices, including the UK. Often, HNW clients have a base in the UK in any event and are frequent visitors to the UK, especially during the summer months. Most intend to return to Dubai. The Middle East can experience periods of instability from time to time, and I think clients who reside there are mindful of this and the importance of being able to relocate elsewhere for a period of time. It is helpful to have a visa that enables stays in another jurisdiction such as a multiple-entry visit visa.”
“Often clients from the Middle East will have a 10-year visit visa in place which allows stays of up to six months at a time in the UK. Other clients may have a Golden visa that enables residence in a European country.”
Change in UK nationality law – British ancestry developments
Carey said. “We are seeing significant movement out of the US at the moment, especially HNW clients in the creative sector. We have assisted several very high-profile celebrities with moves to the UK in recent months. We have also been able to assist clients with British ancestry who are entitled to British citizenship following a change in UK nationality law, which corrects historical unfairness whereby citizenship could not be passed down through the female line. This has enabled clients to apply for citizenship even where the entitlement stems from a grandparent, or in some cases, a great-grandparent.”
Alternative jurisdictions gain traction
Nicolette Bostock, immigration partner and Hannah Wailoo, a Private Client and Tax partner and MENA Group lead, Withers said. “We are observing a marked increase in UHNW individuals and families leaving the UAE as a result of heightened instability in the Middle East. Those with a connection to the UK, so British citizens and those who maintain a home here, are naturally migrating back to the UK, however, in most cases this is on a temporary basis, in the hope that the situation in the UAE will improve with ceasefire negotiations.”
Multiple homes
“In reality, many UHNW’s have multiple homes and are increasingly mobile, and so Switzerland, the Channel Islands, Spain, Italy and Monaco are also jurisdictions of interest, sometimes a number of these concurrently, as well as Singapore and Thailand.”
“At present, British clients are caught in a delicate balance between security concerns, lifestyle disruptions, the tax advantages that originally motivated opting for UAE residence, and the possible undoing of complex tax planning around a UK exit. It is still too early to determine whether these shifts represent tactical pauses or long-term relocation; becoming a UK tax resident is almost of universal concern. The start of the tax year in April provides a short buffer, as day-counts have been reset, however for recent leavers from the UK the tax picture is more complex, and exceptions may not be available.”
Long term routes remain limited
Bostock said. “For non-UK, US and European citizens, UK visit visa and European Schengen visa access has been impacted with lengthy lead times and limited appointment availability and capped stays. Should current geopolitical conditions in the region endure, visitor status may no longer be suitable for those who have chosen to relocate. However, long-term immigration routes are extremely limited – the UK’s non-participation in the conflict means that no special UK visa routes have been created for individuals or families wanting to relocate.”
“Withers is simultaneously advising on remote work options in the UK, with businesses seeking guidance on UK tax and employment matters for principals seeking a short-term UK base but with the option to transfer employment and apply for sponsored work visas if needed.”
“Meanwhile, inbound demand from the US continues to be robust, especially through the Global Talent and Innovator Founder routes, which attracts talent from the technology, creative, and research sectors and entrepreneurs intending to set up in business in the UK. Overall, the UK’s familiarity, political and legal stability, and centrality to Europe, combined with the new four-year FIG regime, continue to appeal to American UHNW clients and founders seeking a foothold in the UK.”
Cayman enters the frame
Cline Glidden, counsel in Ogier’s Cayman Islands office said. “Historically, interest in Cayman came largely from North and South American individuals. In recent years, however, demand has become increasingly global. Legislative changes across Europe, rising geopolitical uncertainty and broader concerns around personal safety and political stability have prompted many families to look elsewhere. Beyond financial considerations, lifestyle plays a central role in the decision to relocate. Cayman offers a rare combination of natural beauty and modern sophistication, sun, sea and sand supported by world class infrastructure. The Island has excellent healthcare facilities, international education options and a standard of living that rivals leading global cities. We also have direct international air links for global operations. A cornerstone of Cayman’s appeal is its tax regime. The jurisdiction imposes no property, capital gains, inheritance, income or payroll taxes.”
The UK’s appeal remains, despite trade offs
London based, Lynsey Blyth, Partner, Head of Immigration, Michelmores said. “The escalation of conflict in the Middle East, and the lack of clarity as to how and when it may conclude, has led many British expatriates to return to the UK relatively quickly for security, schooling or family reasons. However, a significant proportion remain hesitant to commit to long term UK residence and are consciously managing days spent here, treating the UK as a temporary base while they reassess their options.”
“As a result, alternative jurisdictions offering flexibility continue to appeal, particularly nearby destinations such as Spain, Portugal and France, as well as countries slightly further afield with attractive residency and tax regimes, including Malta.”
Blyth said. “What has not slowed, however, is the continued influx of UHNW US nationals into London, the Cotswolds and Cambridgeshire. From a lifestyle, education and security perspective the UK remains highly attractive, and the new four year Foreign Income and Gains regime has provided welcome certainty.”
“From an immigration perspective, we most frequently advise on Global Talent, Innovator Founder and senior business visitor routes, with the uncapped Global Talent visa continuing to be particularly popular among internationally mobile executives and entrepreneurs.”
Tax timing becomes critical
Dipesh Shah, Partner, Head of Corporate Immigration at Blake Morgan deals with a range of Fortune and Global 500 companies said. “The recent escalation of conflict and instability in Dubai has led some individuals to return to, or remain longer than expected in, the UK. Returning British expats are often torn between immediate security concerns and long-term financial, tax, and lifestyle consequences when returning from Dubai. While safety concerns have prompted quick decisions, some are waiting for tensions to ease rather than permanent relocation, while others weigh the tax-efficient lifestyle of Portugal or Monaco over the UK’s higher tax environment. The balance between long-term stability and security versus tax inefficiency is however less clear-cut than initially anticipated with the possibility that it brings worldwide income and capital gains into the UK tax net.”
Shah said. “From a UK tax perspective, the timing is particularly sensitive. The tax year ended on 5 April and as part of efficient tax planning individuals would already have carefully managed their time in the UK to be classified as non-resident. This then raises the key issue of how far they can rely on the “exceptional circumstances” rules to avoid accidentally becoming UK tax resident. The current FCDO advice, is against ‘all but essential travel’ to the UAE, although the situation is evolving.”
“We have advised clients to ensure they retain all evidence relating to their respective ‘exceptional circumstances’, with each case assessed on a case-by-case basis. In light of this we have seen a trend with clients choosing Portugal or Monaco over the UK to avoid high UK taxes whilst also maintaining a similar lifestyle of Dubai, but these alternatives additionally involve new tax rules and residency challenges. Dubai has weathered a number of major shocks such as the 2008 financial crisis and Covid-19 however their quick crisis management and economic diversification has often meant they have recovered faster than other global regions. Only time will tell.”
The US route to the UK keeps widening
Shah continues. “In the 12 months leading to March 2025, according to Home Office records over 6,600 US citizens applied for UK residency or citizenship, the highest number since 2004. The Skilled Worker visa and Family visa pathway have continued to draw applicants from the US together with recent reforms to the UK Ancestry visa.”
“There has been a real surge in Global Talent Visa partly because of increased costs of the US, H-1B visa system (50 times as expensive) used by the likes of Google, Apple, Microsoft and others to hire top talent from overseas.”
The US H-1B visa is the primary route for companies to hire highly skilled foreign workers which requires employer sponsorship, is subject to an annual cap and lottery system, and ties the individual to a specific employer. In recent years, costs and associated fees have risen sharply, making it a more expensive and complex option for businesses and prompting some talent to consider alternative destinations such as the UK.
“Beyond the main Global Talent visa, with 50% of eligible universities based in the US, graduates are frequently utilizing the HPI visa route. It allows individuals who have graduated from an eligible university within the past five years to live and work in the UK without needing a job offer or employer sponsorship. Successful applicants can stay for two years (or three years for PhD holders) and are free to work, switch jobs, or explore opportunities during that time. The route offers flexibility and speed, making it easier for highly educated international talent, especially from the US, to establish a foothold in the UK before moving into longer-term visa options.
Shah said. “What is surprising is that the AI giants generally provide higher salary thresholds in Silicon Vally than in London, but we have seen clients choose the UK to progress their professional carers given UK’s flexibility in immigration routes and consistency in the drive to attract global talent in the UK”.
Security fears versus tax realities
Charles Avens, Partner, Head of Immigration, Collyer Bristow said. In regard to British citizens returning to the UK from Dubai, weighing up tax concerns in the UK against potential safety and security concerns in Dubai, my view is that the longer this war goes on, without any end in sight, British citizens may give genuine thought to returning here, rather than face the disruption and security fears that they are currently experiencing in Dubai.”
“On the significant tax issues faced by British expats returning here and whether these issues would outweigh the security concerns in Dubai, if it wasn’t for the changes to inheritance tax on overseas wealth, there would not have been the mass exodus of HNW people leaving the UK in the first place over the last 18 months, something that I have taken up with the Office for Investment.”
The Office for Investment is a UK government body that works with high net worth individuals, global investors and multinational businesses to facilitate major investment into the UK. Operating across HM Treasury and the Department for Business and Trade, it provides a central point of contact to help navigate regulation, connect investors with senior policymakers and support large-scale or strategic projects.
Avens said. “In regard to HNW Americans coming to the UK, the main visa aside from the Global Talent visa for Digital Technology, is the UK Expansion Worker Visa, which allows HNWs who run successful companies in the States to open a UK subsidiary or branch here and use that as the conduit to come to the UK.”
Wealth routes into the US remain complex
Joshua S. Rubenstein, Partner, Global Chair, Private Wealth Department, Katten said. “There are any number of reasons that high net worth individuals might want to move to the United States for indefinite periods of time. While there are a wide variety of visas from which potentially to choose, each having different attributes, the important thing to note – unless you are sure your move is permanent – is to go the visa route, not the green card route. Having a green card becomes the equivalent of having citizenship for US world-wide estate tax purposes once you have had it in 8 out of 15 calendar years. It is best to renew visas for as long as possible until you are sure you want to stay.”
Ceasefire brings cautious optimism
A two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran has brought cautious optimism, with early signs of stabilisation and a gradual return of activity across affected families and businesses. However, a full recovery is not expected in the near term, with many anticipating a slow normalisation over the coming months, potentially not until September 2026 or later, particularly as seasonal factors may continue to weigh on activity.
Reeves’ pitch meets ground reality
Against this backdrop, Chancellor Rachel Reeves is actively courting Gulf-based British expats and other high-net-worth individuals. In a speech in Washington this week, she is positioning Britain as a “safe harbour economy” — stable, open for business, and attractive amid global volatility. She is launching consultations on easing tax frictions for mobile professionals, particularly around the treatment of foreign LLCs and double taxation mismatches, while highlighting the FIG regime and existing talent visas.
Safe harbour, but not a substitute
Whether these tweaks, still at consultation stage, will convert temporary “wait-and-see” stays into permanent moves remains to be seen. For now, most Gulf-based families appear to be balancing short-term security and schooling needs against Dubai’s long-term lifestyle and tax advantages, with the UK serving as a practical but imperfect safe harbour rather than a full replacement.
Key Takeaways
- Many residents, including British families, have temporarily left the Gulf due to escalating tensions and security concerns.
- Despite the exodus, most departures are precautionary; families often plan to return to Dubai once stability returns.
- Dubai authorities are implementing support measures to maintain confidence and attract skilled talent amidst the uncertainty.
- British nationals relocating seek shorter-term solutions, weighing tax implications against security and schooling needs.
- The UK remains appealing for high-net-worth individuals, although many treat their return as temporary amid ongoing geopolitical instability.
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