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Clinton’s presidency is popular abroad but unpopular domestically

Date: 16 Mar 2016

Citywealth

Joshua Rubenstein, national chair of the Private Client Services group at Katten Muchin Rosenman, comments on the US presidential candidates.

What do you see as the risks posed by the presidential elections outcome in the US?

The US presidential elections pose at least two separate concerns: how far right will Trump have to go in order to pick up the evangelical vote, and how far left will Clinton have to go the get the impressive youthful support for Sanders. Neither of two extremes is viewed as good by the markets. Another risk posed by Clinton’s presidency is that it is popular abroad but unpopular domestically. That has proven to be a bad combination in the past. Additionally, the ongoing inability of the US Congress to pass timely or responsible legislation is of great concern.

Would Brexit have any impact on the US market?

There’s already enough worries about the ongoing European debt crisis. Whenever one has a membership organisation with a balanced budget, on average, half the members give more than they receive and half receive more than they give, from a purely economic standpoint. That’s the beauty of averages. But the net contributors are the ones who have the moral and political sway over the strength and power of the whole, which is more than one can achieve alone, even as a net contributor.

Are sustained low oil prices ultimately good or bad for the US economy?

Ironically, the long term effects of sustained low oil prices is bad for the economy, as is sustained high oil prices. The markets seem to favour moderation.

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